France and a Little Bit of Nick Faldo

By Lee Jaundrell   20/4/12

Euro 2012 is just around the corner, and now is the time to place your bets or rather the one bet. In a few weeks time, odds compilers around the world will turn their attention to the tournament, so place your bets now before they realise what a rick they’ve made. Get on France @ 14/1 while they’re not looking.

“France? Meh!” I hear your cry. Well come with me and lets see if I can persuade you.

Spain are the favourites, they won the last World Cup and also Euro 2008. The team is built around Barcelona, who are quite good at football. So, they are worthy favourites for the tournament. Well I disagree. I love this Spanish team, I backed them 4 years ago to succeed and again 2 years ago, but they won’t see any of my money this time around. There are 2 reasons for this, and I know you can prove anything with stats, but no team has won 3 major international tournaments in a row, ever! The second reason is tiredness. The Spain squad will likely be made up of around 9 players from Barcelona, 4 from Real Madrid, and 6 or 7 from Athletic Bilbao, Valencia and Atletico Madrid. All these teams are in the semi-finals of the Champions League or Europa League. Barcelona and Real are also fighting out a tight, titanic title race, and both are showing signs of fatigue. Most of you will of seen Bilbao play in the Europa League this season, with their high intensity game of pressing and man-marking all over the pitch. This must take it out of the players, the excellent Martinez, Muniain and Llorente must be feeling it now. For the first few months of the season, David Silva was the best player in England, his form has dipped recently, and Juan Mata also appears to be feeling the heat of a long hard season. Throw into the mix David Villa broke his leg in December and Fernando Torres has all but forgotten where the goal is, this makes Spain @ 5/2 a very poor bet.

This current German side is arguably the best they’ve had for years. In particular due to a strong central midfield of Khedira, Schweinsteiger and Ozil, and the goalscoring exploits of Gomez. They have dozens of good young players to choose from, in all positions. The one area where they might struggle is in defence. Experience can be vital, and apart from Lahm, they could struggle. Mertesacker is currently injured (though should recover in good time) and hasn’t pulled up trees at Arsenal this season while Friedrich is in semi-retirement playing for Chicago Fire. Saying that, Germany do have a great chance this summer, they qualified in a stroll, winning 10 from 10, and you just can’t write off the Germans (sorry!). The last friendly match, though, saw an home defeat to France. I’ll say that again, the last friendly match, though, saw an home defeat to France.

Nick Faldo was an excellent golfer, winning several majors, and was very popular with the British public. Every major he played in, you would be guaranteed to see a flood of bets on him to win, no matter what his chances were. He’d be priced up at a low price, which didn’t reflect his actually chances of victory. The money would still come regardless. This is what I like to call ‘The Nick Faldo Factor’. England suffer from The Nick Faldo Factor. Patriotic money keeps the England price lower than it should be, and it always has done. British bookmakers have dominated the world of betting for years, and therefore lead the way with the prices, foreign firms just fall into line. England are currently around 9/1 to win Euro 2012. 


During the Eriksson years, England did actually stand a chance in the tournaments they played in, partly due to some good players, and partly due to there not being an outstanding international team between France 2000 and Spain 2008. Eriksson kept things simple with his England team, he played the best players. If fit you could guarantee the following would play, A.Cole, Ferdinand, Terry, Gerrard, Lampard, Beckham, J.Cole, Rooney and Owen. Right back was a bit of an issue, but meh! They weren’t a great team, qualified easily for tournaments, but never had that little bit extra to go all the way, maybe all they needed was a little bit of luck. Now can you name the England team for their first game against France in Euro 2012? Hart in goal, Cole at left back is about as far as I got for certainties. Will Terry and Ferdinand play? Or will Lescott and Cahill start? Centre midfield is actually all over the place, there’ll be no Wilshire, so who starts out of Parker, Barry, Gerrard, Lampard, Carrick or even Scholes? Ashley Young would appear to have dived into the role on the left, but who’ll play on the right? Walcott? And who plays up front? Wellbeck? Sturridge? Or possibly Fraizer Campbell? Andy Carroll is even making a late push. No wonder Harry Redknapp has looked lost over the past few weeks. 

England are 9/1, while France are 14/1. A France side which has been transformed by Laurent Blanc into a united, unbeatable force. They are on a run of 18 matches unbeaten, coming into form at just the right time. Their players are generally fresh, and have some very good, almost unknown players ready to set the world on fire this summer. No one really takes that much notice of French club football, except for maybe Graham Carr the head scout of Newcastle. This French team have a top goalkeeper in Hugo Lloris, every bit as good as Joe Hart, and probably better. There is experience in defence with Evra, Mexes and Sagna in particular. A central midfield which could include Newcastle’s Cabaye, one of the players of the year in England, following a season captaining Lille to the French title, and the new star of French football Yann M’Vila. M’Vila won’t be staying at Rennes this summer, a big money move to one of Europe’s giants awaits. He is being bigged up as being better than Viera. Out wide France can count on Ribery, Nasri and the well rested Malouda. Up front is interesting, firstly there is Benzema, the likely starter, but he is under pressure from this season’s revelation in France, Olivier Giroud with 23 goals from 35 games for unfashionable Montpellier. Throw in players such as Loic Remy, a possible inclusion of Hatem Ben Arfa and the creative midfielder Marvin Martin, and France are looking good for the summer. They are hitting form at the right time, including beating Germany in Germany recently.

England are 9/1, while France are 14/1.

The other major contenders include Holland, who at 7/1 are probably priced correctly, Van Persie will surely be popular for a top goalscorer bet. They were functional during the World Cup, and had Robben. They stand a chance in the summer, but have recently faltered against Sweden and lost 3-0 in Germany. Others appeal more.

Cesare Prandelli is a manager I like, but hasn’t set the world on fire with his Italian side, and recent back to back home defeats to Uruguay and USA have dampened expectations. Italy are likely to be Italy in the Euros. Solid, hard to beat, could improve as the tournament goes on, but will probably come up short.

Spain and Germany are entitled to lead the betting lists, but France are the value @ 14/1. Back it now while no one is looking. 

Liverpool - What the future may hold

By Lee Jaundrell  5/4/12

Liverpool could end the season with 2 trophies, which has to be considered a success. But, the league campaign has been a bit of a disaster, currently 8th, 16 points behind the Champions League placings, the target for the season. Being outside the top 4 for another season may mean Liverpool may need to cut their cloth accordingly. FSG threw money at the situation last summer but I don’t see them investing big again this coming summer, in fact, it wouldn’t surprise if they break even on transfer fees in the next window.

The investment since FSG took charge has generally been on talent with a future, players mid/low 20s, with 5-10 playing years to come, such as Carroll, Henderson, Suarez, Downing, Enrique, Adam and Coates. FSG having spent big to be in the Champions League and failed, and now must take a very long term view on the future, which could mean looking for slow improvement of the team and the squad. Trusting the players already at the club, in the first team squad, and the young ones coming through. This could be a project that could take years to place Liverpool back where they belong.

There are already noises that older, high earning players such as Kuyt and Maxi will leave in the summer, Bellamy another year older and Carragher will surely be spending more time coaching than playing. This will leave holes in the squad, and with Liverpool not being an exciting prospect for top class players, the coming seasons could be a struggle. Commolli will really need to earn his corn. Good players are available. Newcastle are being held up as the true ‘Moneyball’ team, with the excellent purchases of Tiote, Cabaye, Ben Arfa, Ba & Cisse and prove that the talent is there.

So next season will see experienced players leave, and be replaced by young players coming through the club, and also 2 or 3 ‘gamble’ signings which need to work. It’s not all doom and gloom though. Lucas has been sorely missed and will be back next season. Downing and Henderson will hopefully improve on their debut season, and if Agger stays fit, Liverpool’s defence is strong and well balanced with 2 good attacking full-backs in Johnson and Enrique. 

Liverpool seem blessed with talented youngsters at the moment, Shelvey has talent and will improve, Kelly solid when given his chance and Flanagan and Robinson have some experience now. Others who will surely make a mark over the next few months, Suso, Eccleston, Coady, Wisdom, McLaughlin and the very exciting prospect Sterling. It would be foolish to think all 10 of these players will prove up to the standard required, but if 2 or 3 make it, the club could have a solid base from which to build.

In conclusion, it is doubtful Liverpool will get a short term fix to their problems in the summer, but things are not as dark as been made out. While the top 4 may be out of reach for another season or 2, progress can and will be made. 

Dalglish - Above Average Reds

By Lee Jaundrell   29/3/12

‘If you buy above average players, you end up with an above average team.’

I don’t know who actually said that about the current Liverpool team, but I think they got it spot on. Kenny Dalglish (and Damien Comolli) have spent a lot of money (also recouped a sizeable amount) on players in the past 15 months, but have Liverpool really had a chance of a top 4 finish with the quality of player bought? Dalglish has been fighting a losing battle to be honest. Throw in some bad luck, a few poor performances and you have a team currently lying seventh in the league, an above average position.

This is a season which has seen Chelsea struggle, Arsenal play poorly until a recent upsurge and Tottenham falter lately. It is a season with top 4 places were up for grabs. Next season I believe will be tougher, at least 2 of those 3 will improve, if not all 3. The top 5 will look impregnable, maybe for some time.

So where did it all go wrong (to steal a bellboy’s question to George Best) for the Carling Cup winners/FA Cup Semifinalists? The above average signings!

Andy Carroll;- A cult hero in Newcastle, big, strong, great in the air, are all the things we expected from big Andy (or ponytail as my wife calls him) but have seen very little of this. The odd good flick on, a couple goals but thats about it. The stat doing the rounds on Twitter of Liverpool’s record when he starts recently is astounding, won 5 and drawn 2 of the last 7 games he’s started. It would appear he brings the best out of the players around him. If he is to prove successful, surely he needs to start every game. But to date at the price paid I’d rate him a 5 out of 10 signing. Average

Jordan Henderson;- A lot of money was spent on this up and coming midfielder. Young, English, good one touch player, plays with his head up and obviously has ability, but maybe he hasn’t done it for the reds so far this season is because he doesn’t have game intelligence. He seems lost being played out of position on the right. He never makes the right run, he receives the ball, plays a quick one touch pass then looks lost to what to do next. 

In Dalglish’s first spell as Liverpool manager he had the out and out winger on the left John Barnes and the more flexible Ray Houghton cutting inside to help the midfield from the right, unfortunately Downing and Henderson are not Barnes and Houghton.

The big hope for Henderson is that he will blossom playing as a box to box central midfielder, he reminds a bit of David Platt but without the goals. Saying that, was David Platt really that good without the goals? 5/10. Average

Stewart Downing;- Liverpool needed a left winger, they went out and bought the ‘best’ available English left winger, and paid what was needed. That’s part of what the Moneyball principle says,‘fill what’s needed, pay what’s needed.’ But Downing has been, for want of a better word, pants. Bought, you would think, to provide the service from wide for Ponytail, sorry big Andy Carroll to thrive on. Downing this season couldn’t cross a road. I don’t have the stats. but the number of crosses that reach a Liverpool player in the box is minimal. In some quarters Downing was made Man of the Match in the Carling Cup final against Championship Side Cardiff, but in the whole of that game, I can remember only one cross which reached it’s target. Maybe he’ll improve, but will he get the chance? Raheem Sterling came on against Wigan and looked bright. Dalglish has a decision to make between now and the end of the season, 2 of Downing, Bellamy, Maxi or Sterling to compete for the left sided role, in my opinion, Downing is forth on that list. 1/10. Poor

Charlie Adam;- Oh Charlie, Charlie! £6million isn’t a lot of money is this day and age, Liverpool should of had a bargain, but it hasn’t quite worked out. Adam has talent, an excellent range of passing, a good dribbler and £10million’s worth of corners. Firstly, those corners, Liverpool have scored 4 goals from 247 corners in the league this season, read that slowly 4 from 247! Adam had had some good games, but the bad ones far outweigh them. Poor decision making, especially after a good surging run has been part of the downfall, and talking of downfall, why oh why do you fall over so often looking for free kicks. 6/10. Slightly above average considering his cost

Not one of the above 4 signings would get close to getting into the sides in the top 5, how can we of expected Dalglish to make Liverpool a top 4 team with these 4 in the heart of the team?

There have been good signings too; Bellamy has been an excellent free transfer, his performance against Man City in the Carling Cup Semi Final was just immense. Enrique has been part of a very strong defence (Johnson, Skrtel & Agger included), and offers variety going forward. He is quick, strong, good on the ball and is very confident, though at times he hangs onto the ball a little too long. That leaves the one major successful signing, Luis Suarez, for effort, skill, and will to win you couldn’t ask for more.

This leaves the question of whether with these signings, and the unfortunate injuries to key players, did Dalglish have a chance of taking Liverpool back into the Champions League?

The squad appears deep in above average talent, but seems to lack a very strong first 11. Which seems to be the complete opposite of the time under Benitez, when the first 11 was very strong, but underneath there wasn’t much. At times Liverpool have been excellent, the defensive partnership of Agger and Skrtel is arguably as good as it gets in the league this season, with Skrtel, in particular, putting in a player of the season performances, well until he was moved from right side centre back to left side to accommodate Carragher in Agger’s absence, and has looked quite shaky against QPR and Wigan.

In attack the team has produced chance after chance, though not always clear cut. Suarez being at the heart of these chances, either creating of trying to finish, and in most cases both. He is trying too hard, if that’s possible, that when a chance comes is way, is finishing has been poor due to the effort used in creating. Gerrard is currently Liverpool’s best finisher, as the game against Everton again proved, but he has been playing far too deep for most of the games he’s played.

Lucas has been a big loss, Spearing, although committed, wouldn’t get into most Premier League sides, he was shown as a level or 2 below by Man Utd away earlier this season, buying a defensive midfielder last January was imperative if the top 4 was to be a realistic target.

So, in conclusion, the signings are not up to top 4 class, blame can be apportioned to both Dalglish and Comolli for this. The side has also lacked direction at times, are we a pressing side, or a sit back and absorb side. At times it has been both, at times neither.

If Liverpool are to get back into the Champions League soon, radical changes are needed. Whether that is massive investment in players during the summer, or a new radical, progressive manager is put in place instead of Dalglish to push the side on, or maybe both is in fact needed. One thing is for certain, if things stay the same, and above average players are again bought in the summer, another season of being above average is in store. Dalglish 6/10. Comolli 3/10.

I am Waving an Imaginary Red Card....

By Lee Jaundrell   20/1/12

I am waving an imaginary red card to all the fools who are in so much outrage at players/managers who wave imaginary cards.

Apparently waving this imaginary card is worse than an out of control two-footed tackle which could finish a players career. Why are you so outraged? Is asking for a player to be booked or sent off so wrong, even worse than the offence which this card is being asked for?

I heard Andy Gray on Talksport even go as far to say that Mancini asking for a player to be sent off on the sidelines with suitable Italian hand gestures was worse than Rooney running and screaming hands raised in a referees face. How? Why? Where? When? etc.....

When I was 14 or 15, due to a couple of players being late, I was asked to turn out for a local pub side. The basic instructions I was given, was to run around a lot and claim for everything. Every throw in, every corner, every foul. “REF” was being screamed all game long, but this was the norm of sunday league football. If the referee wasn’t sure, he may just go with the side that screamed the loudest. Claiming for a corner which you clearly know is a goal kick is surely much worse than asking a referee to book someone who has hacked you down for the tenth time.

Mancini is doing nothing wrong in my eyes, nor is any player who asks a referee to take action for an offence committed. But we’re English and we don’t do that, do we? It does feel that there is a bit of little englander about the whole commotion caused by this, which appears to be what this season has been all about so far.

I am still waving an imaginary red card. Now shut up and get on with the game.

The Quiz Show Dilemma

By Lee Jaundrell 10/01/12

Picture the scene, you have just got through to the final round of a major quiz show, and you now have the chance to win £1million. To win this prize you have the choice of 3 boxes, in 1 box is the £1million, in the other 2 boxes is a dusty bin and a blankety blank cheque book and pen. Now choose your box; 1, 2 or 3.

After making your choice, Terry Monkhouse (the host) then takes away one of the other boxes saying the million pounds is not in it that one, and then offers you the chance to change your mind on which box you want. For example, you originally choose box 1, the host then takes away box 3. Do you keep box 1 or change to box 2?

What would you do?

I'm guessing you would probably stick to your original choice, but I would suggest 100% that you should always swap for the other box. And here's why;-

When you have the choice of 3 boxes, there is a 33.33% chance of the money being in any box, or in betting terms each box is a 2/1 chance, so as the example goes you pick box number 1;-

Box 1 - 33.33% chance

The host takes away box 3, leaving the chances of the money in each box as;-

Box 1 - 33.33%

Box 2 - 66.67%

Or in other words, it is odds on (1/2) that the money is in box 2, and a 2/1 chance of the money being in box 1. But, you will forever regret changing your mind if the money is in fact in box 1. That's the Quiz Show Dilemma.

What would YOU do? 

Liverpool - What do they need?

By Lee Jaundrell   30/12/11

In a couple of days the transfer window opens, and all sides have the chance to improve their teams, put right what’s going wrong. You hear from managers that January is a bad time to buy players, Chelsea bought Torres last January which has been an undoubted failure, and also bought Sideshow Bob (Bob would be much better than David Luiz). 

Liverpool bought Suarez and Carroll. Up to a point Suarez has been a brilliant success, he is a superb talent always involved in the game, loved by the fans, but whose finishing could be better. He is currently banned for the game against Newcastle, and is about to be banned for a further 8 games for his confrontation with Evra (plenty has been written elsewhere which I’m unqualified to really add to). Suarez is no good to anyone sat on the bench. Carroll, to me, has been a failure, and not lived up to what was expected of a big money signing. But that could of been so much different if his last minute efforts against Man City and Blackburn had not been impressively saved by Hart and Bunn respectively.  

Liverpool are currently 6th in the league, just 3 points behind Chelsea in 4th place. They would be 4th now if Carroll’s late efforts against Man City & Blackburn hit the back of the net. Liverpool would be more than happy with 4th place at the end of the season, which they are very much in the hunt for, but something isn’t quite right. The summer signings haven’t quite hit off. Enrique has been excellent at left back, possibly the best player in the league at that position at the moment. Adam has been inconsistent so far, for every good game (Chelsea away) there are two poor games (Swansea & Blackburn at home). Downing has generally been poor, for a player who was bought for his creativity, he hasn’t had one assist or one goal this season. Henderson has been moved around the pitch by Dalglish, sometimes wide, sometimes central. His best position is probably attacking centre midfield, which he has shown flashes of good play, he is hard working but sometimes as is normal for young players he goes missing. 

Other players haven’t contributed what they should, Gerrard has been injured, while Kuyt, who would normally contribute 10 - 12 goals a season, hasn’t got any in league this season. Fortunately the defence has been impeccable, and the foursome of Enrique, Agger, Skrtel and Johnson are as good as anything around. The team are creating chances, apart from poor performances away to Tottenham and at home to Swansea, Liverpool could argue they had enough chances to win all the other games. They have produced more crosses than any other team, and hit the woodwork more than anyone else. So have they been unlucky? Or is there something fundamentally wrong? What does the team need to improve and can this be done in January.

GOALSCORER

If only Ian Rush was 25 years younger. With the number of chances created and crosses provided, is it only an out and out goalscorer needed? This would mean playing 4-4-2, with a goalscorer playing alongside Suarez. But with Lucas missing for the season, defensively this would underman the central areas, unless the wide players tucked in and the full backs provided the width. Liverpool has performed well in recent years with Torres up front  on his own, supported by 3 attacking players (generally Gerrard, Kuyt and A.N Other). Could Suarez drop deeper, solidify midfield, while provide creativity in the final third. Is he capable of that position?

CENTRAL MIDFIELDER

With Lucas missing for the remainder of the season, a defensive midfielder would be preferable in this window. Spearing is ok, but not top class. If the Champions League is a genuine target, 2 from Adam, Spearing, Gerrard and Henderson is not strong or disciplined enough for me. It will be interesting if Liverpool show an interest in Tiote of Newcastle. Newcastle don’t need to sell, but as the Carroll deal showed money speaks volumes.

WIDE PLAYERS

Downing and Kuyt have underperformed this season, Henderson though showing willing is not suited to playing wide. While Maxi and Bellamy have played well, they have been underused, though they are both 30+ and may not be able to perform to high standards week in week out. Is a new wide player needed? Or will the width be provided by the excellent Enrique and Johnson from fullback. A new strong defensive midfielder would release these two more, meaning a wide player not as necessary as a holding midfielder.

The next few weeks will be interesting from Liverpool’s point of view. They have played well in patches, created lots of chances but not always been ruthless enough. Major surgery of the team isn’t needed, but the odd tweak, and maybe 1 or 2 key signings could push them forward in a very open race for Champions League places. Do the owners want to make that push now? Are there suitable players available?

Luis Suarez - The Tony Soprano of Football

By Lee Jaundrell   12/12/11

Tony Soprano really isn’t very likeable. He is a gangster mafioso who kills people, cheats on his wife and is extremely (as Daffy Duck would say) despicable. But don’t ya just love him!?

Jimmy McNulty is a character from The Wire, he is ‘good police’, who drinks, cheats on various women, and even, to keep police funding up, fakes a serial killer who attacks homeless people. But don’t ya just love him!?

Luis Suarez is a footballer for Liverpool, who allegedly cheats by diving,  who may be racist, though probably not, and was insulting towards Fulham fans. But don’t ya just love him!?

Suarez is the bad guy that you’re actually routing for (though I am biased). He has cheated Ghana out of the World Cup, and bit an opponent in Holland before he even arrived in England. But right now, he is the most watchable player playing in the Premier League and possible the world. He is always involved, continuously on the move, trying to win at all costs, both legally and by the Dick Dastardly rule book. 

He gave a performance against Q.P.R on Saturday which was amazing, turning and twisting everywhere, creating chances, shooting on goal, how he came away with only 1 goal and no assists is bewildering, though if he could finish he would already be on 30 goals for the season and Liverpool would be riding much higher in the league. He has given this type of performance numerous times this season without due reward. One such performance came for Uruguay against Chile where he scored 4 goals, and could have scored 10, there will be games like that this season, and I pity the opponent it comes against.

There are currently two FA charges against him, one of racism towards an opponent, and the other for an insulting gesture towards fans. Liverpool fans will tell you it’s a witch hunt, while opposing fans will want him banned for their game against him. Now I don’t condone double standards but it really would be a shame if Suarez was banned for several games, as everyone loves a good villain, a good bad guy, a Tony Soprano, a Jimmy McNulty. The racism charge is fraught with enough language difficulties and nuances that it would be difficult for the charge to be upheld by the FA, though the insulting gesture charge will end with a ban, and that would be a bad thing for everyone, because as I said he is the most watchable player around. 

You wouldn’t watch The Sopranos without Tony, and The Wire without McNulty would just be like watching Treme! English football would be much less enjoyable without Luis Suarez.