The Betting Blog

Liverpool v Man Utd - Truth? You Can’t Handle the Truth

By Lee Jaundrell   14/10/11

When analysing a betting event there are certain things to take into consideration, the main one being the chances a side (or selection) has of winning. If you believe a team has a 50/50 chance of winning then if that team is priced above Evens (2.00 for decimal people) it is a value bet. I believe Liverpool have a 50/50 chance of beating Man Utd on Saturday, they are priced around 21/10 (or 3.10), in value terms that is massive, more massive than a Man City fan’s view of Man City.
Now being a Liverpool fan you may think I’m being biased, but I only deal in FACTS, more so than even Rafa Benitez. Here are some facts;-
  • 1, Man Utd have lost on their last 3 visits to Anfield
  • 2, Man Utd have conceded more goal attempts than any other team in the league this season, that’s relegation form, you don’t believe me? Read this.
  • 3, Of their last 7 meetings, 6 have ended in a home win
  • 4, The exception to point 3;- Liverpool winning 4-1 at Old Trafford in 2009
  • 5, Rooney struggles at Anfield, 1 goal in 9 appearances, and that was way back in January 2005
Need I say more? Throw in the fact that Rooney’s head may not be in the right place, problems with his Dad, finding out he’ll probably miss out on Euro 2012, and the Liverpool fan’s goading him about both, could in fact make him explode. There have been 4 red cards in the past 4 meetings at Anfield between these sides (3 to Man Utd players), who’d bet against another? And who’d bet against it being Rooney?
You could make a case for any of the 3 results, but the most likely is a home win, you know it makes sense.
Liverpool to win @ 21/10 (generally available)
‘The truth? You can’t handle the truth!’

Turkey and the Myth of the ‘Must Win’ Match
By Lee Jaundrell   5/10/11
You may or may not know but I like a bet. You also may not know that I used to work for an international bookmaker, and you may also not know that I used to be, at one time, a Football Odds Compiler for said bookmaker. One thing that used to always amuse me, well maybe not amuse, was how teams who had to win were priced up. These ‘must win’ teams were always priced up much shorter than they should of been. 
This leads me to the Turkey v Germany game on Friday. As it stands Germany have qualified for the Euro 2012 tournament, while Turkey are placed second 2 points ahead of Belgium with 2 games to go. Belgium play Kazakhstan (one of the worst teams currently in Europe) in Brussels this weekend and are as near to a certainty as there is in football. Therefore, if Turkey lose at the weekend, it would leave Belgium 1 point ahead of Turkey with one game to play. It would appear to be a ‘must win’ game for turkey at home to Germany on Friday, or at the very least a ‘must not lose’ game.
But, the game for Turkey against Germany is not the important one when you look at the final group games, which take place next Tuesday. The worst case scenario for Turkey is to lose against Germany and for Belgium to beat Kazakhstan, leaving them a point behind Belgium. But Belgium’s final game is away to Germany while Turkey have a fairly easy game at home to Azerbaijan. If as expected, Turkey beat Azerbaijan, Belgium would have to win in Germany to finish above Turkey. Basically, being a realist, in their next 2 matches Turkey just need to beat Azerbaijan.
So, there you have it, Turkey don’t need to beat Germany, nor do they even have to avoid defeat. They can lose to Germany and still be big favourites to finish second in group A. 
This game, to me, appears to have been priced up as if Turkey need to win and Germany have nothing to play for. How do I come to this conclusion? Well......
If we assume that Turkey and Belgium are of a similar standard due to there being very little between them in this qualification group (in fact, i believe Belgium are probably much better than Turkey in reality, I sense a blog about this Belgium squad coming on), then a point of reference for the price of this match would be the price of Belgium v Germany earlier in the group. Germany were generally 4/7 (or around 1.55 for you modern decimal people).
For this Friday’s match away to Turkey, Germany are as big as 5/4 (2.25) with several major online bookmakers. The difference between 4/7 and 5/4 is massive.
Sorry if all that was a bit technical and boring, or a bit ‘pullein’ as I like to call it, but without having to know anything about the two teams involved you can evaluate what could be value.
Throw into all this that the Germans are notoriously ruthless, that they have currently won 8 from 8 so far in this group, and the fact (well not fact, but my opinion, another blog another day) that they are the best team in Europe and will go on and win Euro 2012, and 5/4 is huge.
Advice is;-
Germany @ 5/4 (generally available)
I’m on, are you?